Go Forward

Innovating the Future of Geothermal Energy with Advanced Fracture Modelling

Go Forward seeks to enhance drilling operations in geothermal energy exploration by employing process-based predictive models, explains Senior Researcher Michael Welch, leader of project Go Forward.

The project seeks to enhance the success rate of drilling operations in geothermal energy exploration, particularly in regions with limited data availability. This will be achieved by employing process-based predictive models to better inform drilling strategies.

There are three stages to this project:

  • Develop process-based models for stratigraphic, diagenetic and fracture forward modelling, that can be used to identify optimal drilling strategies.
  • Calibrate the models in data-rich settings, e.g. outcrops analogues.
  • Test the models in data-poor settings, e.g. newly developed subsurface prospects.

The Go Forward project will adapt models for three key geological environments:

  • Clastic Reservoirs: Gassum Formation (DK), Nieuwerkerke Sandstone, and Upper North Sea Group (NL).
  • Carbonate Reservoirs: Molasse Basin (DE/CH/AT), Paris Basin (FR), Iberian Basin (ES), and Vienna Basin (AT).
  • Crystalline Basement: Cornish Granites (UK), Tuscany (IT), and Catalan Coastal Range (ES).

Dictionary:


Stratigraphic:
Relating to the layering of sedimentary rocks.
Diagenetic: Processes that change sediments into rocks after deposition.
Fracture Forward Modelling: Simulating fracture formation and evolution in geological formations.
Stochastic Fracture Model: A statistical model representing fractures with inherent uncertainties.
Stratigraphic Forward Modelling: Predicting sediment layer development over time.
Diagenetic Modelling: Simulating changes in rocks due to diagenesis.

DTU Offshore is focusing on fracture forward modelling as part of the GO-Forward project. Building on our previous development of the DFM Generator software, we are applying advanced modelling techniques to carbonate and crystalline basement reservoirs.

Fractures and faults play a critical role in geothermal reservoirs, particularly in how they influence fluid flow. Key factors such as fracture density, size, aperture, and interconnections determine the flow performance in reservoirs with low matrix permeability. While fractures can enhance fluid flow, they can also act as barriers, impeding flow paths due to mineralization or fault movement. Additionally, these faults are potential sites for induced seismic events, which is a crucial factor to assess for seismic hazard analysis.

Mapping small-scale fractures is challenging due to the limitations of subsurface imaging and borehole data. Traditional methods rely on stochastic fracture models based on measured geometries from boreholes or analog outcrops. However, these methods struggle to accurately reflect variations in geological conditions, such as differences in lithology or deformation history.

To overcome these limitations, DTU Offshore is utilizing process-based geomechanical Fracture Forward Models (FFM). Our approach includes:

  • Adapting the DFM Generator software to geothermal reservoir rock types, including basement rocks.
  • Integrating geomechanical properties from stratigraphic layering and diagenetic alterations informed by Stratigraphic Forward Modelling (SFM) and Diagenetic Modelling (DGM).
  • Incorporating tectonic stress histories and multiscale fault fabric, along with the effects of thermal and chemical changes over geological timescales and during reservoir exploitation.
  • Using advanced machine learning techniques to improve data assimilation from seismic surveys, outcrop photogrammetry, and borehole images.

These methodological advancements aim to provide a more reliable and comprehensive workflow for creating multiscale fault and fracture models. This reduces uncertainty in pre-drill assessments of geothermal reservoirs, identifies potential flow barriers, and contributes valuable insights into seismic hazard analysis.

Facts about the project

Partners & associates

  • Fraunhofer Society (Germany) – Coordinator
  • Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland (Denmark)
  • Netherlands Organization for Applied Scientific Research (Netherlands)
  • Geosphere Austria (Austria)
  • Cartographic and Geological Institute of Catalonia (Spain)
  • UK Research and Innovation (United Kingdom)
  • University of Bari Aldo Moro (Italy)
  • University of Vienna (Austria)
  • Technical University of Denmark (Denmark)
  • Swiss Geo Energy (Switzerland)
  • Risk Dialogue Foundation (Switzerland)
  • EVN Wärme GmbH (Austria)

Contact

Michael Welch

Michael Welch Senior Researcher Danish Offshore Technology Centre Mobile: 9351 1572